In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for June 26 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Baena records more than 3.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Alex Baena records 3.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Alex Baena in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Alex Baena is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:16:56 PM
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for June 26 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Baena records more than 3.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Alex Baena records 3.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Alex Baena in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Alex Baena is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Alex Baena recording 4+ shots in the Uruguay vs. Spain World Cup match on June 26 has a 50% probability, indicating an uncertain outcome. The resolution hinges on Baena's performance in the first 90 minutes, excluding extra time or penalties.
Baena, a key attacking midfielder for Spain, may capitalize on Uruguay's defensive vulnerabilities, leading to higher shot attempts. Spain's possession-based style could create multiple opportunities for Baena to take 4+ shots in the match.
Uruguay's disciplined defensive structure may limit Baena's shot opportunities, especially if Spain struggles to break through their backline. Baena could be marked tightly or substituted early, reducing his shot count below the threshold.
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Alex Baena: 4+ shots is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
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