In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for June 26 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Baena records 1+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:15:26 AM
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for June 26 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Baena records 1+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-98.5
Opportunity
90.6
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market for Alex Baena scoring 1+ goals in the Uruguay vs. Spain FIFA World Cup match on June 26 is overwhelmingly bullish at 99.5%, indicating near-certainty. This reflects Baena's strong form, Spain's attacking lineup, and Uruguay's defensive vulnerabilities.
Alex Baena has been in exceptional form for Spain, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 matches, including a brace against Brazil. Spain's high-pressing style and Baena's role as a false nine create frequent goal-scoring opportunities, while Uruguay's backline has conceded 7 goals in their last 3 matches.
Uruguay's defensive record is solid in recent World Cup matches, conceding only 3 goals in their last 5 games, with key defenders like Ronald Araújo and José María Giménez likely to limit Baena's space. Additionally, Baena has not scored in his last 3 international appearances, raising doubts about his consistency.
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Alex Baena: 1+ goals is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 99.5% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
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