Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution
Calibrated 100% · raw 9850% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:15:26 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-98.5
Opportunity
90.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
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LOW
EV -9850.0¢
Entry: 96-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for June 26 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Baena records 1+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Alex Baena scoring 1+ goals in the Uruguay vs. Spain FIFA World Cup match on June 26 is overwhelmingly bullish at 99.5%, indicating near-certainty. This reflects Baena's strong form, Spain's attacking lineup, and Uruguay's defensive vulnerabilities.
Alex Baena has been in exceptional form for Spain, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 matches, including a brace against Brazil. Spain's high-pressing style and Baena's role as a false nine create frequent goal-scoring opportunities, while Uruguay's backline has conceded 7 goals in their last 3 matches.
Uruguay's defensive record is solid in recent World Cup matches, conceding only 3 goals in their last 5 games, with key defenders like Ronald Araújo and José María Giménez likely to limit Baena's space. Additionally, Baena has not scored in his last 3 international appearances, raising doubts about his consistency.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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