Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable referee decisions affecting early play
AI updated 6/26/2026, 8:45:41 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
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Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
53%
ORYN Consensus
53%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
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MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 50-56
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for June 26 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Spain score 1 or more goals in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If Spain score less than 1 goals in the first half, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on Spain's first-half score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 52.5% chance that Spain will score at least one goal in the first half of their FIFA World Cup match against Uruguay, indicating a slight bullish tilt toward Spain's offensive performance in the opening 45 minutes.
Spain, a historically strong offensive team, may leverage their possession-based style to create multiple goal-scoring opportunities in the first half, particularly if Uruguay's defense struggles with high-pressure tactics or early substitutions. Their recent form, including high-scoring wins, supports the over scenario.
Uruguay’s disciplined defensive structure and counter-attacking prowess could stifle Spain’s attack, leading to a low-scoring first half. Historical data shows Uruguay often concedes fewer goals in early stages, reducing the likelihood of Spain breaching their defense.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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