Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury to key players before/during the match
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:17:57 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,150,920
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Portugal" if Portugal is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This market will resolve to "Croatia" if Croatia is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the game is canceled entirely and no team advances from this match, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Portugal vs. Croatia in the FIFA World Cup is evenly split, with a 50.00% probability assigned to either team advancing. The outcome hinges on the match's official result, including potential extra time or penalties.
Portugal's bull case centers on their offensive firepower, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, and their strong recent performances in high-stakes matches. A victory would solidify their status as tournament favorites, leveraging their historical success and depth in squad quality.
Croatia's bear case assumes Portugal's dominance in possession and scoring opportunities, with Portugal's midfield control and defensive resilience posing a significant challenge. Croatia's reliance on Luka Modrić's creativity may be insufficient against Portugal's balanced attack.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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