Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Weather or pitch conditions affecting high-scoring play
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:46:17 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,096,074
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Croatia" if Croatia win the game by 6 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Portugal". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates an even split (50%) on whether Croatia will win by 6+ goals over Portugal in their upcoming FIFA World Cup match. The outcome hinges on Croatia's offensive dominance and Portugal's defensive frailties.
Croatia's recent form, including strong attacking performances in qualifying and a high-scoring style under their manager, supports the possibility of a 6+ goal victory. Portugal's inconsistent defense in recent matches also increases the likelihood of a lopsided result.
Portugal's depth in midfield and attacking talent could prevent a 6+ goal loss, especially if Croatia's defense holds firm. Historical World Cup matches rarely exceed a 5-goal margin, making this outcome less probable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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