Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Resolution ambiguity
Calibrated 100% · raw 450% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 5:45:56 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 27% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
55%
ORYN Consensus
59%
Signal Score
+4.5
Opportunity
2.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,271,855
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 450.0¢
Entry: 52-58
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
3 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ivan Perišić records more than 0.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Ivan Perišić records 0.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Ivan Perišić in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Ivan Perišić is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ivan Perišić recording 1+ shots in the Portugal vs. Croatia FIFA World Cup match on July 2 shows a 59% probability of success, indicating moderate confidence in his involvement in the game. The outcome hinges on his role in the match, with historical performance and team dynamics as key considerations.
Perišić has a strong track record in high-stakes matches, particularly in the World Cup, where he has consistently contributed with shots and goal attempts. Croatia's attacking style may provide him opportunities to create chances, especially if the team dominates possession or forces Portugal into defensive transitions.
Perišić may be listed as inactive or not start the match, which would immediately resolve the market to
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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