Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low historical precedence for 4+ goal margins in knockout World Cup matches
AI updated 7/1/2026, 11:30:39 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
19%
ORYN Consensus
19%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,364,770
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 16-22
—
Resolution
3d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 4 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "France" if France win the game by 4 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Paraguay". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low-probability outcome (19%) where France wins by 4+ goals against Paraguay in their FIFA World Cup match on July 4. The resolution hinges on a significant goal margin, making this a high-risk, high-reward bet.
France's attacking depth and Paraguay's defensive vulnerabilities could lead to a 4+ goal margin. Historical World Cup data shows underdog teams often struggle defensively, and France's squad depth (e.g., Mbappé, Griezmann) increases the likelihood of a lopsided scoreline.
Paraguay's disciplined defensive structure and counterattacking prowess may limit France's goal-scoring opportunities. Low-scoring matches are common in knockout stages, reducing the chance of a 4+ goal margin. Fatigue or tactical adjustments could further dampen France's offensive output.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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