Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries or red cards disrupting team balance
Calibrated 100% · raw 450% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:15:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
26%
ORYN Consensus
21%
Signal Score
-4.5
Opportunity
2.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,423,816
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -450.0¢
Entry: 22-29
—
Resolution
3d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
19 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Paraguay and France, scheduled for July 4 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Paraguay and France each score at least one goal during the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if either team fails to score in the second half (i.e., if one or both teams finish the second half with zero goals). If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Both Teams to Score in Second Half' between Paraguay and France has a low probability of 21%, indicating skepticism about high-scoring action in the second half. Historical trends and team dynamics suggest limited offensive output, but late-game scenarios could shift expectations.
France's attacking depth and Paraguay's occasional counterattacks could lead to both teams scoring in the second half, especially if momentum shifts late in the game. A tactical error or defensive lapse by either side may also increase the likelihood of goals.
France's defensive solidity and Paraguay's limited attacking threat may result in a low-scoring second half, with one or both teams failing to score. Fatigue or tactical adjustments could further suppress goal-scoring opportunities.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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