Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries or suspensions affecting key players before/during the match
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:15:37 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
15%
ORYN Consensus
14%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,424,186
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
3d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
19 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Paraguay and France, scheduled for July 4 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Paraguay and France each score at least one goal during the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). This market will resolve to "No" if either team fails to score in the first half (i.e., if one or both teams finish the first half with zero goals). If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Both Teams to Score in First Half' (BTTS) in the Paraguay vs. France World Cup match has a low probability of 13.50%, indicating skepticism about high-scoring potential in the opening 45 minutes. The outcome hinges on offensive capabilities, defensive structures, and early-game dynamics of both teams.
Paraguay’s recent form under Guillermo Barros Schelotto shows attacking intent, with players like Miguel Almirón capable of breaking down defenses. France, despite defensive lapses, has elite forwards (Mbappé, Griezmann) who could exploit Paraguay’s midfield gaps early. A fast start by either side could trigger a BTTS outcome.
France’s defensive record in major tournaments is strong, with only 2 goals conceded in their last 3 World Cup matches. Paraguay’s lack of depth in attack (beyond Almirón) and France’s midfield control (Camavinga, Tchouaméni) reduce the likelihood of both teams scoring in the first half. Low-scoring matches are common in knockout stages.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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