Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or fatigue limiting Watkins' playing time
Calibrated 100% · raw 4650% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:15:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
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| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
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| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
49%
Signal Score
+46.5
Opportunity
24.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
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LOW
EV 4650.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
28 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Panama and England, scheduled for June 27 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ollie Watkins records more than 3.5 combined goals + assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Ollie Watkins records 3.5 combined goals + assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Goals and assists are added together: each goal or each assist credited to Ollie Watkins in the official match statistics adds one to the combined total. Combined goals + assists are counted only if credited to Ollie Watkins in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Ollie Watkins is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ollie Watkins recording 4+ combined goals and assists in England's match against Panama at the FIFA World Cup has a near-even probability (49%) of occurring. The outcome hinges on Watkins' individual performance within a single game, with historical data suggesting moderate risk due to team dynamics and opponent strength.
Watkins has shown consistent attacking output in recent matches, with a propensity for goal contributions (goals + assists) in high-pressure games. England's attacking depth and Panama's defensive vulnerabilities (ranked 50th in FIFA rankings) could favor Watkins' involvement, especially if England fields a strong lineup.
Watkins' role may be limited if England rotates the squad or adopts a defensive strategy against a strong opponent like Panama. Panama's defensive structure (e.g., low block) could stifle Watkins' creative output, and his tendency to score from open play rather than set pieces may reduce his assist potential.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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