Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Last-minute exclusion from the squad
AI updated 6/26/2026, 8:30:46 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
100%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -30.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
4 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Norway and France, scheduled for June 26 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ousmane Dembélé records more than 1.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Ousmane Dembélé records 1.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Ousmane Dembélé in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Ousmane Dembélé is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market overwhelmingly favors 'Yes' for Ousmane Dembélé recording 2+ shots in the Norway vs. France World Cup match, with a 99.65% probability. This reflects near-certainty due to Dembélé's consistent performance and France's attacking style.
Dembélé is a key attacking player for France, known for his dribbling and creativity, which typically generates multiple shot attempts. France's high-possession style against Norway increases his opportunities to take shots. Historical data shows Dembélé averages 2+ shots per match in international competitions.
Dembélé could be excluded from the lineup or play a limited role, reducing his shot opportunities. Norway's defensive structure may stifle France's attacks, limiting Dembélé's involvement. Fatigue or injury could further decrease his effectiveness in the match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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