Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion of González
Calibrated 100% · raw 300% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:15:23 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
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| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
+3.0
Opportunity
2.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,857,210
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 300.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
14h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and Ecuador, scheduled for June 30 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Armando González records more than 0.5 assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Armando González records 0.5 assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Assists are counted only if credited to Armando González in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Armando González is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Armando González recording 1+ assists in the Mexico vs. Ecuador FIFA World Cup game (June 30) stands at 8%, suggesting low probability. The outcome hinges on his direct involvement in play, official assist attribution, and match dynamics.
González has a strong chance if Mexico's attacking strategy prioritizes wing play, and he is positioned as a key creative midfielder or winger. High possession dominance by Mexico could increase his assist opportunities, especially if Ecuador's defense is vulnerable to counterattacks.
González is unlikely to record an assist if he is not a starter or is substituted early, or if Ecuador's defense neutralizes Mexico's attack effectively. Low possession or a defensive tactical approach by Mexico would reduce his assist chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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