Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion of Woltemade
Calibrated 100% · raw 950% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:45:22 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
20%
Signal Score
+9.5
Opportunity
7.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,746,848
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 950.0¢
Entry: 7-13
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nick Woltemade records more than 1.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Nick Woltemade records 1.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Nick Woltemade in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Nick Woltemade is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market on whether Nick Woltemade will record more than 1.5 shots in Germany vs. Paraguay at the FIFA World Cup has a 19.5% probability of resolution. The low probability suggests skepticism about Woltemade's involvement or shot volume in the match.
Woltemade could exceed 1.5 shots if he starts the match, receives favorable tactical positioning, or if Paraguay's defense is vulnerable to counterattacks. High pressing or set-piece involvement could also increase his shot opportunities.
Woltemade may not feature prominently if Germany's lineup prioritizes other forwards or midfielders, or if Paraguay's defensive structure limits his shot attempts. Inactivity or substitution before significant playtime would also negate the outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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