Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion of Beier
Calibrated 100% · raw 900% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 9:00:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
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|---|---|---|---|
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
23%
Signal Score
+9.0
Opportunity
7.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,184
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 900.0¢
Entry: 11-16
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
15 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maximilian Beier records more than 3.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Maximilian Beier records 3.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Maximilian Beier in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Maximilian Beier is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Maximilian Beier recording 4+ shots in Germany vs. Paraguay (June 29) stands at 22.5%, indicating a low probability event. Performance depends on Beier's role in the match and Paraguay's defensive structure.
Beier could exceed 3.5 shots if deployed as a high-pressing forward or winger, leveraging Germany's attacking style against Paraguay's likely defensive frailties. Historical data suggests he averages 2-3 shots per game, but a favorable matchup could push him higher.
Beier may record ≤3.5 shots if Paraguay employs a deep defensive block or he is substituted early. His limited minutes in recent games (avg. ~60 mins) reduce the likelihood of reaching 4+ shots. Injuries or tactical adjustments could also suppress his output.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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