In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sweden" if Sweden win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "France". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Key risk: Unexpected early lead by Sweden that France cannot recover from
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:15:45 AM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sweden" if Sweden win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "France". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low 2% probability that Sweden will win by 2+ goals against France in their FIFA World Cup match on June 30. The outcome hinges on Sweden achieving a dominant victory, which is statistically unlikely given France's stronger team performance and historical dominance.
Sweden could defy expectations by executing a high-scoring tactical game, exploiting France's defensive vulnerabilities. A strong early performance or set-piece dominance might enable Sweden to secure a 2-goal lead, fulfilling the market condition.
France's superior squad depth, individual skill, and historical World Cup pedigree make a 2-goal Sweden victory highly improbable. Even a narrow Sweden win (1-0) would result in a 'France' resolution, aligning with the market's low probability.
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Spread: Sweden (-1.5) is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 2% while ORYN AI estimates 2%.
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