Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion of Mbappé
Calibrated 100% · raw 3955% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 10:15:33 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
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|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
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| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
90%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
-39.5
Opportunity
25.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,158,307
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3955.0¢
Entry: 87-93
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
18 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kylian Mbappé records more than 2.5 shots on target within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Kylian Mbappé records 2.5 shots on target or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots on target are counted only if credited to Kylian Mbappé in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Kylian Mbappé is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Kylian Mbappé recording 3+ shots on target in the France vs. Sweden World Cup match is nearly evenly split, with a 50.50% probability. This reflects uncertainty around Mbappé's form, tactical role, and Sweden's defensive setup.
Mbappé is a prolific attacker with a high shot volume, averaging 3+ shots on target per game in recent tournaments. If France dominates possession and Sweden's defense struggles with pace, Mbappé could exceed expectations.
Sweden's disciplined defensive structure and counter-attacking style may limit Mbappé's opportunities. If France relies on midfield control rather than direct play, his shot count could fall short of 3.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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