Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution limiting Tchouameni's playing time
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:47:05 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
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| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,921,634
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
6h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aurélien Tchouameni records more than 2.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Aurélien Tchouameni records 2.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Aurélien Tchouameni in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Aurélien Tchouameni is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Aurélien Tchouameni recording 3+ shots in France vs. Sweden (FIFA World Cup) is evenly split at 50%, reflecting balanced expectations. The outcome hinges on Tchouameni's role in France's midfield and Sweden's defensive strategy.
Tchouameni, a dynamic defensive midfielder, could exceed 2.5 shots if France dominates possession and he transitions into attacking phases frequently. Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities in wide areas may force him into shooting positions.
Sweden's disciplined defensive structure could suppress France's midfield creativity, limiting Tchouameni's opportunities to shoot. His role as a ball-winner rather than a shooter may result in fewer than 2.5 shots.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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