Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low sample size of Doué’s international goal-scoring (career avg: <0.5 goals per game)
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:45:36 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
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| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,311,828
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Désiré Doué records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Désiré Doué scoring 3+ goals in France vs. Sweden (World Cup, June 30) is low-probability at 3.95%, reflecting historical rarity of such events in international football. The resolution criteria are strict, requiring official box-score confirmation within 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Doré has shown glimpses of elite finishing in domestic leagues, and a high-scoring France team could create opportunities for a breakthrough performance. If Sweden’s defense collapses under pressure or commits defensive errors, the probability of Doué scoring 3+ goals could rise. A favorable referee or weather conditions (e.g., heavy rain disrupting play) might also increase attacking chances.
Scoring 3+ goals in a single FIFA World Cup match is statistically rare, with fewer than 10 instances in the tournament’s history. Doué’s role in France’s midfield/attack may not prioritize individual goal-scoring, and Sweden’s disciplined defensive structure could limit his opportunities. Historical data suggests a <5% chance for any player to achieve this in a World Cup match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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