Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Resolution ambiguity
AI updated 6/29/2026, 9:30:58 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
49%
ORYN Consensus
49%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,686,119
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 46-52
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marko Arnautovic records more than 3.5 combined goals + assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Marko Arnautovic records 3.5 combined goals + assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Goals and assists are added together: each goal or each assist credited to Marko Arnautovic in the official match statistics adds one to the combined total. Combined goals + assists are counted only if credited to Marko Arnautovic in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Marko Arnautovic is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Marko Arnautovic achieving 4+ combined goals and assists in the Spain vs. Austria World Cup match is nearly evenly split, with a 49% probability. The outcome hinges on his individual performance and team dynamics in a high-stakes match.
Arnautovic, Austria's star striker, has a strong chance if he plays a key role in Austria's attack, given Spain's defensive vulnerabilities. His recent form and goal-scoring record suggest he could contribute significantly, especially if Austria adopts an aggressive strategy.
Arnautovic may struggle if Austria's tactical approach is overly defensive or if Spain's midfield and defense neutralize his influence. His absence due to injury or suspension would also result in a
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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