Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or fatigue limiting Arnautovic's playing time
AI updated 7/1/2026, 8:15:35 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
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| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,569,258
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
18h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marko Arnautovic records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Marko Arnautovic scoring 3+ goals in the Spain vs. Austria FIFA World Cup match has a low probability of 2.60%, reflecting the rarity of such an event. Historical data and player performance suggest this is an unlikely outcome.
Arnautovic has demonstrated goal-scoring ability in past matches, including a hat-trick against North Macedonia in 2021. Austria's attacking style and potential defensive vulnerabilities in Spain could create opportunities for him to score 3+ goals.
Arnautovic is 34 years old and has not consistently scored at a high rate in recent tournaments. Spain's strong defensive record and midfield control make it statistically improbable for any single player to score 3+ goals in a single match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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