Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_red_cards
Calibrated 100% · raw 850% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 6:00:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
18%
ORYN Consensus
26%
Signal Score
+8.5
Opportunity
6.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 850.0¢
Entry: 14-20
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
49 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the match goes to extra time. This market will resolve to "No" if the match is completed without going to extra time. For the purposes of this market, a match goes to extra time if play begins in any period after the scheduled 90 regulation minutes plus stoppage time for that match. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match ends in a draw before extra time is played, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Spain vs. Austria going to extra time in their FIFA World Cup match is currently priced at 26%, indicating a low probability of extra time occurring. Historical data and team dynamics suggest a balanced but not overly drawn-out match.
Spain's attacking prowess and Austria's defensive vulnerabilities could lead to a high-scoring match, increasing the likelihood of a draw requiring extra time. Late-game drama or tactical adjustments may prolong the match beyond regulation.
Both teams have shown strong defensive organization in recent matches, reducing the likelihood of a draw. Spain's possession-based style may dominate, while Austria's counterattacking approach could lead to a decisive result in regulation time.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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