Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion of Baena
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:02:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,664,460
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
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MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Baena records more than 1.5 assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Alex Baena records 1.5 assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Assists are counted only if credited to Alex Baena in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Alex Baena is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Alex Baena recording 2+ assists in Spain vs. Austria at the FIFA World Cup has a 50% probability, reflecting balanced uncertainty due to Baena's inconsistent assist record and Austria's defensive tactics.
Baena has a strong chance if Spain dominates possession with high crosses and through balls, leveraging his playmaking role in midfield. Austria's defense may struggle against Spain's attacking trio, increasing Baena's assist opportunities.
Baena's assist record is modest this tournament, and Austria's disciplined defense could stifle his creativity. If Spain relies on individual brilliance rather than team play, Baena's assist potential may be limited.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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