Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion before/during the match
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:02:26 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
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|---|---|---|---|
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,490,349
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Noni Madueke records more than 4.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Noni Madueke records 4.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Noni Madueke in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Noni Madueke is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Noni Madueke recording 5+ shots in the England vs. DR Congo World Cup match has a neutral 50% probability, reflecting uncertainty due to limited historical data on his shot volume in major tournaments.
Madueke is a high-usage winger with a propensity for taking frequent shots from wide areas, particularly in counterattacks. England's tactical setup under Gareth Southgate often encourages wide players to drive into the box, increasing his shot opportunities.
Madueke may be deployed in a deeper role with limited offensive responsibilities, reducing his shot count. DR Congo's defensive structure could prioritize crowding the midfield, limiting his space in the final third. Fatigue or tactical adjustments may further suppress his shot volume.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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