Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low historical goal-scoring rate for Madueke in international matches
Calibrated 100% · raw 1400% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:01:10 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
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|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
34%
ORYN Consensus
20%
Signal Score
-14.0
Opportunity
11.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,470,464
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1400.0¢
Entry: 31-36
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
27 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Noni Madueke records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Noni Madueke scoring 3+ goals in the upcoming England vs. DR Congo World Cup match has a 19.5% probability, indicating low market confidence in this outcome. The player's historical performance and team context suggest this is an unlikely scenario.
Madueke has shown intermittent goal-scoring form in club football (e.g., 2+ goals in 5 Premier League appearances in 2023-24), and England's attacking depth could create sufficient opportunities. A high-pressing DR Congo defense with potential gaps might also expose defensive vulnerabilities.
Madueke has not scored in his last 12 international appearances and is often used as a substitute or winger, reducing his goal-scoring opportunities. DR Congo's defensive structure is disciplined, and England's midfield control may limit high-quality chances for forwards.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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