Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_early_goals
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:15:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
35%
ORYN Consensus
33%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 31-38
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
20 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Colombia and Portugal, scheduled for June 27 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Colombia and Portugal combine to score 2 or more goals in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If the combined first-half total is less than 2 goals, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5' is currently pricing in a 33% probability of the combined first-half goals exceeding 1.5. This suggests a bearish sentiment favoring a low-scoring first half.
Colombia and Portugal are both known for attacking styles, with Portugal featuring prolific scorers like Cristiano Ronaldo and Colombia relying on dynamic forwards such as Luis Díaz. High-intensity play early in the match could push the total over 1.5 goals, especially if either team starts aggressively.
Both teams have shown defensive resilience in recent matches, with Colombia conceding few goals and Portugal often controlling possession without early breakthroughs. Fatigue or tactical caution in the opening phase could suppress scoring, favoring the 'Under' outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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