Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential underestimation of Japan's defensive capabilities
Calibrated 100% · raw 205% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:00:42 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 205.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Brazil" if Brazil win the game by 5 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Japan". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (7.5%) of Brazil winning by 5+ goals against Japan in their upcoming FIFA World Cup match. The spread is set at -4.5, indicating a strong underdog status for Brazil despite their historical strength.
Brazil's offensive firepower (e.g., Vinicius Jr., Richarlison) and historical dominance in World Cup knockout stages could enable a high-scoring victory. A tactical misstep by Japan or referee leniency on fouls could contribute to a lopsided outcome.
Japan's disciplined defensive structure and counterattacking style may neutralize Brazil's attack, preventing a 5-goal margin. Brazil's recent inconsistent form in major tournaments (e.g., 2022 World Cup) reduces confidence in a rout.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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