Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential referee bias or VAR decisions affecting goal margins
Calibrated 100% · raw 4765% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:31:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
+47.6
Opportunity
35.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4765.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Japan" if Japan win the game by 4 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Brazil". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Japan (-3.5) against Brazil in the FIFA World Cup game on June 29 has a 48% probability of resolving to Japan, indicating a near-even contest. The outcome hinges on Japan winning by four or more goals, otherwise Brazil will win the spread.
Japan's recent form, including strong defensive performances and tactical discipline, supports the bull case. Historical data shows Japan's ability to score in high-pressure games, potentially achieving the required 4-goal margin. Brazil's potential fatigue or underestimation of Japan could also favor the spread.
Brazil's attacking prowess and star players (e.g., Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo) make a 4-goal margin unlikely. Brazil's depth and clinical finishing in past World Cup matches reduce the probability of a Japan upset. The market's 48% probability reflects skepticism toward Japan's ability to overcome Brazil by such a margin.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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