Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Paquetá's inconsistent international goal record
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:45:31 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,470,464
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
6h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lucas Paquetá records 2+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Lucas Paquetá scoring 2+ goals in Brazil's upcoming FIFA World Cup match against Japan is highly unlikely, with a current probability of 2.05%. Paquetá has not historically been a prolific goal scorer for Brazil, and Japan's defensive structure suggests a low probability of conceding multiple goals.
Lucas Paquetá has shown recent form with 4 goals in his last 5 club matches for West Ham United, including a brace against Manchester United. Brazil's offensive firepower and Paquetá's creativity could exploit Japan's defensive vulnerabilities, especially if Japan employs a high defensive line. A tactical shift or injury to a key Japanese defender could increase his chances.
Paquetá has scored only 1 goal in his last 15 appearances for Brazil, indicating a lack of consistent goal-scoring form at the international level. Japan has a disciplined defensive record, conceding fewer than 1 goal per game in their last 10 matches. Historically, Brazil has struggled to break down Japanese defenses in major tournaments, reducing Paquetá's likelihood of scoring multiple goals.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
