Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: late_match_decisions_by_referee
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:47:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,074,621
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
3d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Senegal" if Senegal win the game by 4 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Belgium". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Senegal (-3.5) in the upcoming FIFA World Cup game against Belgium reflects a balanced outlook, with a 50% probability assigned to either team winning by 4+ goals. The market's neutrality suggests no clear favorite in this high-stakes matchup.
Senegal could win by 4+ goals if they dominate possession, capitalize on early chances, and exploit defensive vulnerabilities in Belgium's backline. Strong team chemistry, tactical adaptability, and key player performances (e.g., Sadio Mané) may tilt the odds in their favor.
Belgium's depth, individual brilliance (e.g., Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne), and tactical flexibility under Roberto Martínez could secure a decisive victory. Senegal's defensive lapses or lack of clinical finishing may prevent them from achieving the required margin.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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