Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury-related absence or suboptimal performance by Mané
AI updated 6/29/2026, 6:47:13 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,469,708
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
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MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sadio Mané records more than 3.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Sadio Mané records 3.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Sadio Mané in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Sadio Mané is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Sadio Mané recording 4+ shots in the Belgium vs. Senegal FIFA World Cup match is evenly balanced at 50%, reflecting uncertainty due to Mané's injury status and Senegal's tactical approach. The outcome hinges on his fitness and role in the match, with historical data providing limited clarity.
Mané could exceed 3.5 shots if fully fit and deployed as a first-choice striker, leveraging his pace and dribbling to create chances. Senegal’s attacking style under Aliou Cissé may prioritize direct play, increasing Mané’s involvement in shooting opportunities. A high-pressing Belgium defense could also force Senegal into long balls, benefiting Mané’s aerial or counter-attacking strengths.
Mané’s injury history (hamstring issues) may limit his playing time or effectiveness, reducing his shot count. Senegal’s tactical setup might deploy him in a deeper or wider role, minimizing his shooting opportunities. Belgium’s disciplined defensive structure could stifle Senegal’s attacks, lowering Mané’s involvement in the match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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