Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Postponement or cancellation of the match
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:01:06 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
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|---|---|---|---|
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,470,173
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ismaïla Sarr records more than 0.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Ismaïla Sarr records 0.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Ismaïla Sarr in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Ismaïla Sarr is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Ismaïla Sarr recording 1+ shots in the Belgium vs. Senegal World Cup match (July 1) is evenly balanced at 50%, reflecting uncertainty due to Senegal's defensive tactics and Sarr's role as a forward. Historical data shows variability in his shot output, while Belgium's defense may suppress his opportunities.
Sarr could record multiple shots if Senegal adopts an aggressive attacking strategy, leveraging his pace and positioning to exploit gaps in Belgium's defense. His prior performances in high-stakes matches (e.g., 2022 World Cup) suggest he is capable of contributing offensively. A Senegal win or late-game comeback could increase his shot attempts.
Sarr may be limited to 0 shots if Senegal plays defensively or if Belgium's backline (e.g., Vertonghen, Alderweireld) dominates, restricting his involvement. Injuries or tactical substitutions could further reduce his playing time or shot attempts. Senegal's recent form (e.g., 2023 AFCON) shows reliance on set-pieces, which may not favor Sarr's shot volume.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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