Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Player injury or tactical exclusion
Calibrated 100% · raw 1450% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:02:02 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
32%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
-14.5
Opportunity
10.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,491,394
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1450.0¢
Entry: 29-35
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
31 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Matias Fernandez-Pardo records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Matias Fernandez-Pardo scoring 3+ goals in the Belgium vs. Senegal World Cup match on July 1 has a 17.50% probability, indicating low market confidence in this outcome. The player's role as a forward and Senegal's defensive record suggest a challenging path to multiple goals.
Fernandez-Pardo has a history of explosive goal-scoring performances in high-pressure matches, and Belgium's attacking lineup could create numerous opportunities against Senegal's defense. If Senegal's defensive structure collapses under pressure, a hat-trick or more is plausible.
Senegal's defensive record in the tournament has been strong, conceding only 2 goals in 3 matches, and Fernandez-Pardo's recent club form may not translate to international dominance. Belgium's midfield control could limit his chances, reducing the likelihood of 3+ goals.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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