Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical exclusion before the match
Calibrated 100% · raw 1550% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:01:55 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
31%
ORYN Consensus
15%
Signal Score
-15.5
Opportunity
11.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,470,173
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1550.0¢
Entry: 28-34
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
26 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ismaïla Sarr records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Ismaïla Sarr scoring 3+ goals in the Belgium vs. Senegal World Cup match on July 1 has a 15% probability, indicating low but non-negligible expectations. This reflects Sarr's historical goal-scoring consistency but is constrained by the rarity of a player scoring 3+ goals in a single game.
Sarr has demonstrated elite goal-scoring form in recent tournaments, including a goal in Senegal's 2022 World Cup opener. Belgium's defense has shown vulnerabilities in high-pressing situations, which Sarr could exploit. A favorable tactical setup or defensive miscommunication could increase his chances.
Sarr's role in Senegal's attack may not prioritize individual goal-scoring, as the team often relies on collective play. Belgium's defensive structure, anchored by experienced defenders, could neutralize his threat. Historical data shows players rarely score 3+ goals in World Cup matches.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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