Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution removing Mbaye from the game
AI updated 6/30/2026, 10:30:22 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,920,559
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 9-15
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ibrahim Mbaye records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Ibrahim Mbaye to score 3+ goals in Belgium vs. Senegal (FIFA World Cup, July 1) is currently priced at 12.00%, indicating low probability. This reflects extreme unlikelihood given Mbaye's role as a defender and historical goal-scoring trends for such players.
A bullish scenario would require Mbaye to play an unusually offensive role, potentially due to tactical adjustments or Senegal's urgent need for goals. Unlikely but possible if the game becomes a high-scoring draw, and Mbaye capitalizes on multiple set-piece opportunities or counterattacks.
The bear case is overwhelmingly strong. Mbaye, a center-back, has historically scored fewer than 0.1 goals per 90 minutes in his career. Defenders scoring 3+ goals in a single game is a rare anomaly, with no precedent in modern World Cup history. The market's low probability aligns with this statistical reality.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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