Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Sarr's fitness or disciplinary issues pre-match
AI updated 7/1/2026, 3:30:40 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
9%
ORYN Consensus
9%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,231,482
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 6-12
—
Resolution
13h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
13 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ismaïla Sarr records more than 0.5 assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Ismaïla Sarr records 0.5 assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Assists are counted only if credited to Ismaïla Sarr in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Ismaïla Sarr is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ismaïla Sarr recording 1+ assists in the Belgium vs. Senegal FIFA World Cup game on July 1 has a low 9% probability, reflecting skepticism about his involvement in the match's offensive play.
Sarr could deliver 1+ assists if Senegal's attacking strategy relies on his pace and crossing ability, particularly if he plays as a winger or attacking midfielder in a high-pressing system against Belgium's defense.
Sarr is unlikely to record an assist due to Senegal's defensive tactics prioritizing stability, Belgium's strong midfield control, or if Sarr is subbed off early or plays a limited role in the match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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