Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late changes to team lineups or injuries affecting performance
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:00:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,132
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
5d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
27 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 3 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cabo Verde" if Cabo Verde win the game by 4 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Argentina". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low 5% probability that Cabo Verde will win by 4+ goals against Argentina in their upcoming FIFA World Cup match. The outcome heavily favors Argentina, with the spread (-3.5) indicating a high likelihood of Argentina winning by 3 goals or fewer.
Cabo Verde could exceed expectations and win by 4+ goals if Argentina underperforms, key Argentine players are absent due to injury or suspension, or Cabo Verde executes an unusually dominant tactical strategy. Historical upsets in major tournaments also suggest this scenario, while unlikely, is not impossible.
Argentina, as a top-ranked team with superior squad depth and attacking talent, is overwhelmingly favored to win by 3 goals or fewer. Cabo Verde's recent form and defensive vulnerabilities make a 4+ goal margin highly improbable. Market dynamics reflect this strong bearish sentiment.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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