Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility from unanticipated geopolitical events
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:45:56 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,349,948
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 46-52
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a near-even split on whether Ethereum's Binance ETH/USDT closing price on June 30, 2026, will be higher or lower than the closing price on June 29, 2026, with a 49.50% probability assigned to the 'Up' outcome.
A bullish scenario could materialize if Ethereum experiences a positive catalyst such as a major upgrade, institutional adoption, or favorable regulatory news in late June 2026, driving prices higher and closing above the June 29 reference price.
A bearish outcome is plausible if Ethereum faces headwinds like regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic downturns, or technical failures, leading to a price decline and closing below the June 29 reference price.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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