Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Binance webpage access issues or regional front-end differences can make manual verification difficult even though the exchange data remains the source of truth
AI updated 7/3/2026, 3:25:09 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Weak-to-negligible relationship with 'Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?' since AI service restoration is largely idiosyncratic and does not usually drive ETH price by the July 2 deadline.
correlates · strength 60%
Strong positive linkage with 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?' because both are short-horizon crypto price threshold markets that often move together with shared risk-on/risk-off sentiment and correlated BTC/ETH momentum.
correlates · strength 60%
Weak relationship with 'Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?' because major geopolitical escalation can affect broad risk assets including crypto, but the event is distant and indirect relative to the ETH market’s near-term cutoff.
correlates · strength 60%
Weak relationship with 'Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' because sports tournament outcomes are effectively independent of ETH price formation aside from negligible background sentiment effects.
correlates · strength 60%
Moderate negative linkage with 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?' because a near-term bullish ETH-above-1,740 outcome is generally less consistent with a longer-horizon severe BTC drawdown scenario, though timing differences weaken the inverse relationship.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This is a very short-horizon crypto price market keyed to a specific Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close, so outcome risk is dominated by near-term volatility rather than long-run fundamentals. With the threshold set near an even market price and the listed market probability at 50%, the base case is essentially a coin flip unless there is a known intraday trend or catalyst pushing ETH decisively above or below 1,740 into the final hour.
If ETH is trading near or above the strike in the hours before resolution, normal crypto momentum and late-session volatility could easily carry the Binance 1-hour close above 1,740. Because resolution depends on a single exchange's hourly close rather than a time-weighted average, even a brief upward push sustained into candle end can be sufficient for a Yes outcome.
If ETH is below the threshold shortly before the final candle closes, short-term noise may not be enough to reclaim 1,740, especially in a weak risk-off session or if BTC and broader crypto are soft. The single-candle-close format also creates path dependency: ETH can trade above 1,740 intrahour and still resolve No if it fades by the exact Binance close.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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