Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Lack of live price context makes the estimate highly path-dependent and less precise
AI updated 7/3/2026, 3:24:10 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Weak to moderate indirect relationship with 'Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?' via general tech/regulatory sentiment, but there is no clear direct causal linkage to Ethereum price by July 2.
correlates · strength 60%
Strong positive correlation with 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?' because both are short-horizon crypto price thresholds driven by shared risk sentiment, macro liquidity, and exchange flows.
correlates · strength 60%
Very weak relationship with 'Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?' except through possible oil, risk-off, and geopolitical shock channels that can affect crypto prices at the margin.
correlates · strength 60%
Essentially no meaningful relationship with 'Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' since sports outcomes do not materially drive Ethereum's near-term price threshold.
correlates · strength 60%
Moderate positive correlation with 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?' through broad crypto beta and regime shifts, though the time horizons differ and long-run downside risk can coexist with short-run ETH strength.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,505,203
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market is effectively a near-even coin flip because the strike of 1,730 is close enough to typical short-horizon ETH volatility that small moves around the final hour can decide resolution. The key nuance is that resolution depends specifically on Binance ETH/USDT's 1-hour candle close at the named end time, so exchange-specific prints and last-hour momentum matter more than broader intraday averages.
ETH can clear 1,730 if broader crypto risk sentiment is constructive and spot buying or short covering lifts price into the final settlement hour. Because the threshold is only a single reference close on Binance, even modest late-session upside momentum could push the candle close above the line.
ETH can finish at or below 1,730 if macro risk appetite softens, BTC weakens, or traders fade rallies into the close. Since the market resolves on one hourly close rather than any intraday high, brief spikes above 1,730 do not help unless the Binance 1-hour candle actually settles above that level.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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