Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Cannot verify live ETH price or current distance from 1,700 from the provided Binance page because the URL returned HTTP 202
AI updated 7/3/2026, 3:23:58 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Weak indirect linkage with 'Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?' through broad tech/AI risk sentiment only; no direct fundamental connection to ETH pricing.
correlates · strength 60%
Strong positive linkage with 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?' because short-horizon crypto risk appetite, momentum, and macro liquidity conditions often move ETH and BTC in the same direction.
correlates · strength 60%
Very weak linkage with 'Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?' since any relationship would mainly come through global risk-off or oil/geopolitical shock channels affecting crypto sentiment.
correlates · strength 60%
Essentially no meaningful linkage with 'Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' because sports tournament outcomes do not materially affect ETH price probabilities.
correlates · strength 60%
Moderate negative linkage with 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?' because a severe BTC drawdown scenario would usually coincide with weaker ETH levels, though the horizons differ.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,180,604
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market is effectively a near-threshold spot-price call on Binance ETH/USDT, resolving on the 1-hour candle close ending July 2 at 11PM ET. With the market set at 50%, participants are signaling that 1,700 is close to perceived fair value for that exact resolution window, so the edge depends mostly on short-horizon ETH direction, volatility, and last-hour positioning rather than long-term fundamentals.
If ETH is already trading near or above 1,700 with neutral-to-positive crypto sentiment, modest upside drift or even a small late-session squeeze could be enough for a Yes resolution because only the final Binance 1-hour close matters. Crypto markets also frequently exhibit momentum continuation around round-number levels once they are reclaimed, especially if BTC is firm and macro risk sentiment is stable.
If ETH is below 1,700 or chopping tightly around that level, the contract is vulnerable to a No outcome because a small downtick at the exact resolution hour is sufficient. The use of a single Binance 1-hour close also increases path-independence, meaning intrahour strength does not matter if sellers push price just below 1,700 by the candle close.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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