Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Binance-specific liquidity constraints or exchange outages
AI updated 7/1/2026, 11:47:33 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 25% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
49%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) closing above 1,690 USDT on July 1 at 9PM ET shows a 50% probability, indicating a balanced outlook with no clear directional bias. The resolution depends on Binance's ETH/USDT hourly candle close, which introduces exchange-specific volatility risks.
Ethereum could surpass 1,690 USDT if macroeconomic conditions improve (e.g., dovish Fed signals) or if a major DeFi/altcoin rally drives ETH demand. Technical breakout momentum from key resistance levels (e.g., 1,700) could also trigger a short squeeze, pushing prices higher.
ETH may fail to close above 1,690 if bearish macro trends (e.g., risk-off sentiment, regulatory crackdowns) dominate or if selling pressure from miners or large holders accelerates. A failed breakout above 1,700 could lead to a pullback toward 1,600.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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