Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Resolution ambiguity
AI updated 7/2/2026, 4:47:50 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 37% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,698,820
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) closing above 1,660 on July 2 at 2AM ET shows a neutral 50% probability, reflecting balanced market sentiment with no clear directional bias. The resolution is strictly tied to Binance's ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close, minimizing exchange-specific volatility risks.
Ethereum could close above 1,660 if Bitcoin's price momentum carries ETH higher, driven by increased institutional adoption or favorable macroeconomic conditions (e.g., softer U.S. inflation data). Short-term technical breakouts, such as a sustained move above key resistance levels (e.g., 1,650), could trigger algorithmic buying and push the price over the threshold.
Ethereum may fail to close above 1,660 if broader crypto sentiment sours due to regulatory uncertainty (e.g., U.S. SEC actions) or macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report). Technical weakness, such as rejection at resistance or a broader market pullback, could cap gains and lead to a
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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