Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific price manipulation or low liquidity
AI updated 7/1/2026, 11:47:03 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) closing above $1,630 on July 1 at 9PM ET shows a 50% probability, indicating a balanced outlook with no clear consensus. The resolution depends solely on Binance's ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close, emphasizing exchange-specific liquidity and price dynamics.
Ethereum could surpass $1,630 if bullish momentum from recent network upgrades (e.g., Dencun) drives increased demand, or if macroeconomic conditions (e.g., favorable U.S. inflation data) boost risk assets. High trading volume on Binance, particularly during Asian or European sessions, could also push the price above the threshold.
Ethereum may fail to close above $1,630 due to profit-taking after a recent rally, regulatory uncertainty (e.g., SEC actions), or broader crypto market downturns. Low liquidity or volatility spikes on Binance, especially during off-peak hours, could prevent the price from reaching the target.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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