Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific price manipulation (Binance liquidity constraints)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 8:46:05 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,791
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) closing above $1,620 on June 28 at 6AM ET shows a 50% probability, indicating a balanced expectation between bullish and bearish outcomes. The resolution depends solely on Binance's ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close price.
Ethereum could surpass $1,620 due to potential bullish momentum from market-wide crypto rallies, institutional adoption, or favorable regulatory news in the APAC region. Short-term technical breakouts or increased trading volumes may also drive the price upward.
Ethereum may fail to reach $1,620 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., Fed policy shifts, inflation concerns) dampen risk appetite. Regulatory crackdowns in key markets like China or South Korea could also suppress ETH prices. Technical resistance at $1,600-$1,620 may hinder upward movement.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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