Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High volatility in crypto markets leading to sudden price swings
AI updated 6/28/2026, 7:00:58 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Ethereum and Bitcoin price movements are positively correlated, so if Bitcoin reaches $77,500 in June, it could influence Ethereum's price, potentially pushing it above $1,620.
correlates · strength 60%
A significant geopolitical event like an Israel strike on Yemen could lead to increased market volatility, affecting cryptocurrency prices, including Ethereum.
correlates · strength 60%
The restoration of Claude Fable 5 for US customers and the outcome of the 2026 FIFA World Cup are unlikely to have a direct impact on Ethereum's price, but broader market sentiment could be influenced by these events, indirectly affecting Ethereum.
correlates · strength 60%
If Bitcoin were to dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026, it could indicate a bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market, potentially pulling Ethereum's price down.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,015,505
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) closing above $1,620 on June 28 at 4AM ET shows a 50% probability, indicating a balanced outlook with equal chances of resolution. The market's neutrality reflects current uncertainty in crypto markets, driven by macroeconomic conditions and Ethereum-specific factors.
Ethereum could close above $1,620 if there is a sustained rally in the broader crypto market, driven by positive regulatory news, institutional adoption, or a Bitcoin ETF approval. Technical momentum, such as a breakout from key resistance levels, could also push prices higher. Additionally, Ethereum's upcoming network upgrades or increased DeFi activity may support a bullish trend.
Ethereum may fail to close above $1,620 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears, high interest rates) dampen risk appetite. Regulatory crackdowns or negative sentiment around crypto could trigger a pullback. Technical weakness, such as a rejection at resistance or declining trading volumes, may also weigh on prices.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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