Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Price manipulation risk on Binance (low liquidity for 1h candles)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 1:46:57 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,208,782
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) closing above 1,610 on June 30 at 11 PM ET shows a balanced probability at 50.00%, indicating high uncertainty. Price determination relies solely on Binance's ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close, with no adjustments for cross-exchange or cross-pair discrepancies.
Ethereum could surpass 1,610 if broader crypto markets rally due to positive macroeconomic signals (e.g., Fed rate cuts) or Ethereum-specific catalysts like ETF approvals or increased network activity. Short-term momentum or speculative trading could also push the price above the threshold.
Ethereum may fail to reach 1,610 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., inflation persistence, hawkish Fed policy) dampen risk appetite. Technical resistance around 1,610 or negative sentiment in altcoins could cap gains, leading to a close below the target.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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