Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific volatility (Binance-specific liquidity risks)
AI updated 6/28/2026, 2:48:44 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,139,674
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) above 1,610 on June 28 at 12PM ET shows a neutral 50% probability, indicating balanced expectations between bullish and bearish outcomes. The resolution depends on Binance's ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close price, which introduces exchange-specific volatility risks.
Ethereum could trade above 1,610 if broader crypto markets rally due to positive regulatory developments, institutional adoption, or Ethereum-specific catalysts like ETF approvals or network upgrades. A sustained uptrend in Bitcoin (often correlated with Ethereum) could also drive ETH higher.
Ethereum may fail to surpass 1,610 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., Fed policy tightening, recession fears) dampen risk appetite or if negative sentiment around regulatory crackdowns or technical issues (e.g., network congestion) persists. A sudden sell-off in altcoins could also suppress ETH.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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