Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific volatility or liquidity issues on Binance
AI updated 7/2/2026, 5:47:09 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 39% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,718,747
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) closing above 1,610 USDT on July 2 at 3AM ET shows a 50% probability, indicating a highly uncertain outlook with no dominant sentiment. The resolution hinges on Binance's ETH/USDT hourly candle close, emphasizing exchange-specific price dynamics.
A bullish scenario could materialize if Ethereum's momentum aligns with broader crypto market rallies, driven by positive regulatory developments, institutional adoption, or macroeconomic tailwinds like lower interest rates. Technical breakouts above key resistance levels (e.g., 1,600 USDT) could also trigger short-term FOMO buying. Additionally, Binance-specific liquidity or trading volume spikes may temporarily inflate the price.
A bearish outcome may result from macroeconomic headwinds, such as a risk-off sentiment in global markets or unexpected regulatory crackdowns on crypto exchanges. Ethereum could face downward pressure if the broader crypto market corrects or if Binance experiences liquidity constraints or negative sentiment. Technical failure to sustain above 1,610 USDT could also weigh on short-term sentiment.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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