Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific volatility (Binance-specific price deviations)
AI updated 7/1/2026, 4:47:31 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,275,654
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) above 1,610 USDT on July 1 at 2AM ET shows a 50% probability, indicating a balanced outlook with no clear directional bias. The resolution depends on Binance's ETH/USDT hourly candle close price, which introduces exchange-specific volatility risks.
Ethereum could surpass 1,610 USDT if bullish momentum persists from recent price action, driven by potential ETF approvals, network upgrades, or macroeconomic tailwinds like risk-on sentiment in crypto markets. A break above this resistance level may trigger short squeezes and algorithmic buying.
Ethereum may fail to reach 1,610 USDT if bearish pressure dominates due to regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., Fed policy), or technical rejection at key resistance levels. A downward correction could see prices dip below this threshold before the resolution time.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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