Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Binance-specific liquidity or exchange downtime affecting price accuracy
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 7:47:26 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 35% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,734,792
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) closing above 1,600 on July 2 at 5AM ET shows a balanced 50% probability, indicating high uncertainty in short-term price movement. The resolution hinges on Binance's 1-hour candle close, with no clear directional bias in current sentiment.
A bullish scenario could materialize if Ethereum benefits from renewed institutional interest, positive regulatory clarity in key markets, or a broader crypto market rally driven by Bitcoin's momentum. Technical breakout above resistance levels (e.g., $1,600) could trigger short-term FOMO and push prices higher.
A bearish outcome may occur if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., Fed policy tightening, risk-off sentiment) dampen crypto demand or if Ethereum faces profit-taking after recent rallies. Macro uncertainty or negative regulatory news could also suppress prices below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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